The Frozen soundtrack is about to meet Titanic in the history books.
Industry sources forecast the Frozen album to sell around 85,000 copies in the tracking week ending on Sunday, Feb. 23. That could be enough to secure the No. 1 slot on next week’s Billboard 200 — for the album’s fifth nonconsecutive week atop the list. (Eric Church‘s The Outsiders might end up No. 2, with 80,000.)
The new Billboard 200’s top 10 will be revealed on Wednesday, Feb. 26.
The last soundtrack to rule for five weeks was the Titanic album in 1998, which spent 16 straight weeks at No. 1. It jumped from No. 11 to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 chart dated Jan. 24, 1998, and then reigned through the May 9 chart.
Titanic had such a stranglehold on the chart in 1998, it blocked a trio of superstars from the top slot. Madonna (Ray of Light), Pearl Jam (Yield) and George Strait (One Step At a Time) all had to settle for No. 2 debuts (and peaks) behind Titanic that year.
Since Nielsen SoundScan began powering the Billboard 200 chart on May 25, 1991, only four soundtracks have spent at least five weeks at No. 1. Titanic, Waiting to Exhale (five weeks in 1996), The Lion King (10 weeks in 1994 and 1995) and The Bodyguard (20 weeks in 1992 and 1993).
At the present, Frozen is one of five soundtracks to spend four weeks at No. 1 in the SoundScan era. The last soundtrack to net four weeks at No. 1 was Bad Boys II in 2003.
This past week (ending Feb. 16), Frozen became only the second soundtrack since 2010 to sell a million copies. It follows the Pitch Perfect soundtrack, which reached 1 million in December. Before that, the last soundtrack set to hit a million was Michael Jackson’s This Is It in December of 2009.
The Frozen soundtrack is currently in its 12th week on the Billboard 200 chart, and has spent the last seven straight weeks lodged in the top two positions on the chart. This past week, it was No. 2, behind Church’s arriving The Outsiders.
On Wednesday (Feb. 19), it was initially thought that Church would secure a second week at No. 1. However, industry projections changed over the past two days, giving the edge for next week’s No. 1 to Frozen. Of course, anything is possible, so don’t rule out a late-in-the-game charge from Church over the weekend.
As for the rest of next week’s Billboard 200 chart, look for Cole Swindell to notch the highest new entry. His self-titled debut album might sell around 60,000 or so for a debut in the top five. The top 10 could also welcome new efforts from Phantogram and Issues.
