This is a trend that’s too early to call, but definitely worth watching – especially for those interested in label and artist payouts. According to recent, streaming-focused research published by the well-respected Mark Mulligan, the amount of streaming per user is edging slightly downward, based on a number of potential factors.

“Across most markets, more consumers are streaming marginally less than they did a year prior.” -Mark Mulligan.

Mulligan used extensive consumer data from EMI’s Global Consumer Insight dataset, a fairly massive body of consumer information (report here).  As usual, it’s very difficult to generalize worldwide, though this seems to be a potential trend in most regions.  “Interestingly, although more and more new consumers are being swayed by streaming services, of those who currently use them slightly fewer are increasing their usage than are actually decreasing usage compared to 12 months previously,” Mulligan noted.  “There are only a few markets where usage is clearly net positive (Norway, Sweden and Japan) while usage is clearly net negative in Spain, France and Denmark.”

The stats are early here, just like the streaming space itself.  That said, there are a number of shifting factors that could be pushing per-consumer usage and listening downward.  According to Mulligan, they include:

The novelty factor wearing off. Restrictions on free usage. Restrictions on mobile usage on free accounts.

We’d throw increased advertising into that mix as well.  But maybe this is the most important one: newer users are simply less fanatical music listeners, which means they listen to less stuff.  And that’s typically what happens when things go mainstream.  Earlier adopters to a service like Spotify, for example, are undoubtedly pouring through the extensive catalog, creating endless playlists, and taking content with them.  Later-stage adopters may also connect with the streaming concept, but are far less ’24-7′.

And what’s wrong, with this?  The answer is nothing at all, as long as premium subscribers continue to ramp upward.  Which means, per-user and per-stream payouts would increase if this trend continues alongside subscriber gains.  A gym wants its members to come less frequently, and similarly, Spotify loves the more casual – and paying – customer.  And, so do artists and labels, which get a far greater per-stream payout from premium users. –Digital Music News